CBN Friday Special丨El Ni?o is officially here. Will it be an economic game changer? 環球快看

One consistent theme of the 2023 summer is, almost beyond any doubt, the relentless heat.

Most regions of China are forecast to experience their first heat wave of the year this week, with maximum temperatures soaring to 37 degrees Celsius in some areas, the China Meteorological Administration said on Monday.

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Beijing, capital of the country, together with parts of northern China, sizzles under one of the worst heat waves in history.

The observatory in southern Beijing on Saturday for the first time recorded temperatures above 40 C for a third consecutive day, according to the meteorological authorities.

In nearby Hebei province and the port city of Tianjin, temperatures have also soared above 40 C over the past few days, prompting authorities to issue “red” alerts for extreme weather, the highest in China’s four-tier weather alert system.

On Thursday, Beijing experienced its second-hottest day on record – with temperatures soaring to 41.1 C. It was also the highest temperature ever recorded in China’s capital during the month of June.

Chinese meteorologists say the current heat wave has been caused by warm air masses associated with high-pressure ridges in the atmosphere and compounded by thin cloud covers and long daylight hours around the summer solstice.

China issued the first forecast for high temperatures and heat stroke for this year on June 15, 13 days earlier than the average release date of most years.

Entering June, record-breaking readings on the thermometer has made it clear that after months of warning, El Ni?o has officially arrived— and it may be the hottest in human history.

Earlier this month, scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)confirmedthat the climate event known as El Ni?o has officially emerged for the first time in more than four years, and it’s expected to bestrongthis time around.

An El Nino system is building along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, which could send global average temperatures soaring to a record high this year or in 2024, the China Meteorological Administration said.

Other countries in Asia have experienced deadly heat waves in recent weeks, which scientists say are aggravated by rising global temperatures.

Since the beginning of June, heat waves have resulted in nearly 100 deaths in two of India’s most populous states. In Spain, recent high temperatures are dealing a blow to farmers who have yet to recover from last year’s drought. In the US, Texas power prices surged 80% this week as a heat wave put added strain on the grid.

“Super El Ni?o”

The entire world has been experiencing extreme temperatures. Researchers have indicated that with rising ocean temperatures worldwide and the onset of El Ni?o in the Pacific, 2023 could potentially become the hottest year on record, according to a report from China Science Daily.

Climate scientists have predicted there is a 90 percent chance that the phenomenon will take hold in the latter half of the year. Its impacts are unlikely to be felt until the end of the year, but there is concern it could develop into a "super El Nino".

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report on May 17 stating that due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases and the influence of natural El Ni?o events, global temperatures may reach record levels in the next five years. It assigns a 98 percent probability to the average temperature from 2023 to 2027 being hotter than the past five years.

So how does El Ni?o form and what to expect during one?

Occurring every three to seven years, an El Ni?o describes theunusual warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, just off the coast from Peru. The phenomenon is declared when sea temperatures in the region rise 0.5 °C above the long-term average.

This subsequently drives surface air temperatures and pressure changes throughout the equator, which then go on toaffect seasonal weather over both hemispheres.

The event is driven by slow, natural fluctuations in ocean currents and wind patterns, but the climatic impacts are felt over many months – and even years – across the planet.

The hottest years on recordtend to happen during El Ni?o. The last major El Ni?o from 2014 to 2016 led to each of those years successively breaking the global temperature record and 2016 remains the hottest year ever recorded.

Variations in wind strength and ocean temperatures in the vast Pacific Ocean lead to two distinct climate patterns, El Ni?o and La Ni?a. The switch between them happens irregularly, every three to seven years, usually with neutral years in between. El Ni?os tend to last about a year but the La Ni?a phase can be longer, and 2023 has brought the end of an unusual run of three successive La Ni?a years.

There is a potential swift switch this year from the La Ni?a period, toward the El Ni?o phenomenon, said Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs.

The fallout of El Ni?o not only includesincreased global temperatures and more frequent and severe wildfires and power outages, but also heightened rainfall, intense flooding and droughts, and mass fish die-offs. The list goes on.

But it’s worth noting that a country’s experience of El Ni?o varies from region to region and season to season, and is dependent on the intensity of the phenomenon when it comes to pass.In parts of the world, like the baked, semi-arid mid-west of the US, an El Ni?o can bring increased rainfall during the summer months. Conversely, it can drive unusually warm temperatures and dry conditions in regions of Africa that are normally very wet.

Costs of extreme weather

The main concern from the changing El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is that it brings more catastrophic events such as wildfires or floods creating humanitarian crises and major ecological damage, which come with economic costs.

Less immediately visible will be its economic effects: El Ni?o is set to aggravate the failure of the prevailing growth-based economic model, with calamitous results for the world’s poor.

However, scientists do not always see eye to eye when it comes to the damage of El Ni?o on the economy. A recent research by Callahan and Mankin, which has been widely cited in the media, attribute “$4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion in global income losses to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Ni?o events”.

Researchers at Oxford Economics are skeptical of these results. According to Ben May, director of Global Macro Research at Oxford Economics, the damage bill from a natural disaster can be huge for an individual economy. But at the global level, total annual damage costs from natural disasters are typically small, when measured as a share of annual world output.

In 2011, a bad year for natural disaster damage, the estimated cost of global damage was about 0.5 percent of nominal US dollar-weighted global GDP. From 2019 to 2021, the cost has averaged less than 0.2 percent of global GDP.

The impact of El Ni?o on crops and food prices is uncertain as well, as academic studies suggest that the impact of ENSO on the yield of key crops is small at a global level. While the yield from large areas of cultivated land may fall significantly due to El Ni?o or La Ni?a, causing price surges in these regions, other regions may benefit from significantly higher yield. For instance, El Ni?o causes a reduction in mean global rice and wheat yield of about 1.3 percent and the adverse impact on corn is relatively small, whereas soybean yield typically increase.

However, the IMF Working Paper also shows that ENSO can account for almost 20 percent of real commodity price inflation over a multi-year period.

Higher food prices are a common theme across El Ni?o events, according to a recent Deutsche Bank report.

According to Bloomberg Economics modeling, previous El Ni?os resulted in a marked impact on global inflation, adding 3.9 percentage points to non-energy commodity prices and 3.5 points to oil.

今夏以來，我國提早開啟了“淄博燒烤”模式：多地氣溫爭先恐后沖上40℃，2023年會成為“史上最熱夏天”嗎？

先是從5月份開始至6月10日，云南、四川、貴州、廣西、廣東等地，陸續出現高溫天氣。

接著，北方也開始了高溫。6月11日，新疆包攬了我國高溫排行榜前十位。石河子出現6月首個40℃的高溫、托克遜連續兩天46℃、艾丁湖氣象站出現48.5℃的高溫，躋身全球高溫榜前列。

6月中旬以來，京津冀區域氣溫迅速攀高。其中，北京、天津、河北中南部和東北部最高氣溫在38℃~41℃。區域最高氣溫出現在22日北京懷柔區湯河口站、天津濱海新區大港站，均達到41.8℃。北方多地37℃以上的高溫影響面積約45萬平方公里，京津冀和山東等地有21個國家氣象站日最高氣溫突破歷史極值；南方地區大范圍強降雨持續，100毫米以上降雨覆蓋面積達20.57萬平方公里。

從6月27日開始，新一輪高溫又將上線，提升京津冀地區“炎值”，預計北京、天津、河北南部還會出現40℃以上的超高溫天氣。7月1日高溫范圍和強度達到最大，并有可能打破歷史極值，具有一定極端性。

目前預計，京津冀地區的整個6月高溫日數有望突破同期紀錄——12.1天（1972年6月）。

不僅是中國，“200年一遇”的熱浪讓東南亞措手不及。

早在今年4月，泰國就刷新了歷史上最高溫的紀錄，氣溫達45.4攝氏度，而鄰國老撾5月份也連續兩天達到43.5攝氏度的最高氣溫。6月1日，越南打破了歷史上最熱的6月紀錄，氣溫達到43.8攝氏度。再加上高濕度，東南亞的酷熱變得更加難以忍受和危險。

罕見的熱浪同樣襲擊了歐美。美國得克薩斯州、新墨西哥州等地氣溫持續刷新紀錄，數千萬人處于極端高溫預警之下。部分地區氣溫刷新了有記錄以來的最高值。歐洲想方設法應對高溫，德國地方設立抗旱專員職位，荷蘭將啟動國家高溫計劃，西班牙縮短學校上課時間。

今夏以來，北半球多地遭遇極端高溫，伴隨著這些高溫天氣，有一個詞會被經常提及：厄爾尼諾。

厄爾尼諾，真的來了

6月以來，赤道中東太平洋海表溫度明顯上升，目前已進入厄爾尼諾狀態。據國家氣候中心預測，未來三個月赤道中東太平洋將維持厄爾尼諾狀態，海溫指數持續上升，將在今年秋季形成一次中等以上強度的東部型厄爾尼諾事件。

美國海洋和大氣管理局（NOAA）近日發布的厄爾尼諾現象觀察報告預計，在今年5月至7月期間，“厄爾尼諾”出現的幾率為62%。根據NOAA氣象學家休瑞的說法，今年之內全球出現“厄爾尼諾”現象的概率超過85%。休瑞表示，“我們目前看到熱帶太平洋有大量的次表層海洋熱量在積累，這些熱量最終會涌向海面。”她認為，“厄爾尼諾”現象正在持續醞釀中，“證據已經非常清晰”。

今年5月17日，世界氣象組織（WMO）發布的報告顯示，全球氣溫在未來五年可能會達到創紀錄的水平，這主要受到溫室氣體的積聚和自然發生的厄爾尼諾現象的影響。

報告指出，有98%的可能性，在未來五年中至少有一年，以及整個五年，將是有記錄以來最熱的年份。

此次厄爾尼諾出現時間比預想提前一到兩個月，且發展較快，到冬季發展為強厄爾尼諾的概率為56%。

如果出現強厄爾尼諾，2024年將很有可能成為有記錄以來最熱的一年。但明年是否會受厄爾尼諾影響成為有氣象記錄以來最熱的一年，仍有不確定因素。

簡單而言，厄爾尼諾是指赤道中東太平洋海表溫度持續、顯著偏暖的氣候現象。正常情況下在信風帶影響下，大量溫暖的海水自東向西流動，形成了穩定的洋流。這種洋流造成太平洋西側海水溫度偏高。而東側海水溫度則較低，空氣相對干燥，氣候也就相對干旱。

但是在有些年份或一年中的某些月份，信風強度異常減弱，造成赤道地區自東向西流動的洋流減弱，西太平洋的海水溫度異常降低，本來比較濕潤的氣候趨于干旱，原本干旱的氣候趨于濕潤。

簡單的說，就是應該多雨的地方降水減少了，應該干旱的地方降水卻在增加，這便是厄爾尼諾現象。

專家表示，在全球變暖背景下，疊加中等以上強度厄爾尼諾事件，可能導致極端天氣頻次更多、范圍更廣、強度更強。

1951年以來，赤道中東太平洋共發生了21次厄爾尼諾事件，曾給我國帶來高溫熱浪、洪澇和干旱等影響。

國家氣候中心分析歷史數據發現，厄爾尼諾發展年夏季，華北南部、華中北部、華東中部、西北地區東部等地氣溫易偏高，部分地區高溫日數可達30天以上。

“厄爾尼諾發展年夏季，西太平洋副熱帶高壓往往偏南偏強，造成我國南方地區降水偏多。近期江南、華南等地強降水頻發就是受到厄爾尼諾狀態影響的體現之一。”中國氣象局氣候服務首席專家周兵說。

而厄爾尼諾通常伴隨著拉尼娜的到來，這是兩種對立的反常自然現象，原因在于信風和洋流的異常。據國家氣候中心預測，在厄爾尼諾發展加強背景下，預計今年夏季我國華東南部、華中南部、西南地區南部降水易偏多，發生洪澇的風險大；西北地區東部降水易偏少，發生氣象干旱的可能性大。而拉尼娜現象則會造成長江流域出現干旱，北方降水異常偏多，在拉尼娜現象出現的冬季極易形成雪災。

不過，專家表示，影響我國氣候異常尤其是高溫、干旱、洪澇等極端事件的因子復雜，厄爾尼諾只是其中一個重要因子。

中國科學院大氣物理研究所季風系統研究中心副主任魏科認為，高溫天氣不可避免，因為目前除東太平洋外，已逐漸出現偏暖跡象，但是今年的厄爾尼諾現象沒有2016年的超級厄爾尼諾現象那么強，未必能達到“史上最熱夏天”。

厄爾尼諾“定損”不易

通常來講，“厄爾尼諾”現象會使全球氣候模式趨于不穩定，災害天氣頻發。在厄爾尼諾年，東南亞、澳大利亞、南亞次大陸等區域可能出現干旱天氣，而從太平洋中部赤道地區到南美大陸西岸可能降雨增多，意味著拉丁美洲（尤其是巴西和阿根廷）可能出現洪災。

惡劣的氣候也會給全球糧食供應帶來壓力。干旱和洪災等天氣會直接擾亂糧食生產秩序，而且氣溫持續升高帶來的熱力效應也會降低土壤肥力和糧食產量。受氣溫升高的影響，糧食作物的品質會下降，從而增加了糧食浪費的可能性，進一步增加饑餓人口的數量。

世界氣象組織(WMO)近日發文稱，年內出現厄爾尼諾氣候現象的可能性越來越大，預計將帶來高溫和極端天氣，進一步影響糧食安全問題，多個主要谷物生產國和出口國將面臨風險。進入6月，受關鍵產區惡劣天氣導致作物減產的擔憂升溫，國際小麥、玉米、大豆期貨開啟了新一輪漲價行情。

按照國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）發布的報告，厄爾尼諾事件不僅對當年全球經濟造成沖擊，也會導致隨后多年經濟體增長乏力。IMF預計，新一輪強勁的厄爾尼諾影響將更為嚴重，可能在長達十年的時間里抑制熱帶國家的經濟活動。

報告稱，厄爾尼諾現象對不同地區的經濟影響存在較大差異。主要經濟體中澳大利亞、智利、印度、印尼、日本、新西蘭和南非的經濟活動都會因為氣候沖擊而短暫下降，而美國、加拿大、墨西哥、泰國等經濟體和歐元區可能從中受益。

厄爾尼諾會為全球經濟帶來不確定性，而具體對經濟產生多大的影響，科學界卻未有定論。

近日，美國科學家在《科學》發布報告稱，厄爾尼諾現象預計在今年再次出現，并將在全球范圍內造成數萬億美元的經濟損失。這項研究是第一批評估厄爾尼諾現象長期損失的研究之一，其預測的損失遠遠超過之前的研究。

該報告的研究人員分析1982年至1983年和1997年至1998年厄爾尼諾事件后幾十年的全球經濟，發現了經濟增長放緩的“持久特征”，即在每一次事件發生后的5年里，全球經濟分別損失了4.1萬億美元和5.7萬億美元，其中大部分由貧窮的熱帶國家承擔。

研究人員預測，鑒于氣候變化可能會加劇厄爾尼諾現象的出現頻率和強度，即使世界各國減少碳排放的承諾成為現實，21世紀全球經濟損失也將達到84萬億美元。他們估計，到2029年，僅2023年的厄爾尼諾現象就可能給全球經濟造成3萬億美元的損失。到本世紀末，厄爾尼諾現象將影響約84萬億美元的GDP增長。其中，熱帶和南半球地區的風險最為嚴重。

然而，有經濟學家對此結論表示質疑。牛津經濟研究院全球宏觀研究主任Ben May認為，厄爾尼諾現象對全球經濟的影響是復雜和不均衡的。一方面，有些國家和地區可能因為厄爾尼諾現象而受益，例如北美、歐洲、澳大利亞等溫帶地區，可能會有更溫暖和濕潤的氣候，有利于農業生產和能源消費。比如厄爾尼諾現象發生時，美國的西部地區一般是偏暖干，美國的東南部分，一般會偏暖濕一些，南美洲降水偏多，會影響到這一地區農產品的產量，尤其像玉米、大豆、小麥等作物。當這一地區降水偏多時，有助于農作物產量的增加，其價格也會有所降低。

另一方面，有些國家和地區可能因為厄爾尼諾現象而受損，例如南美、非洲、亞洲等熱帶和亞熱帶地區，可能會遭受更嚴重的干旱或洪水，影響農業和漁業產量和質量。

May強調，厄爾尼諾現象不會改變全球經濟的基本趨勢和結構，而是暫時性的沖擊。他預計，厄爾尼諾現象對全球經濟增長率的影響不會超過0.1個百分點。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

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